Published by "OilGasScientificResearchProject" Institute of State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Republic (SOCAR).
SOCAR Proceedings is published from 1930 and is intended for oil and gas industry specialists, post-graduate (students) and scientific workers.
Journal is indexed in Web of Science (Emerging Sources Citation Index), SCOPUS and Russian Scientific Citation Index, and abstracted in EI’s Compendex, Petroleum Abstracts (Tulsa), Inspec, Chemical Abstracts database.
Zh. B. Bekeshova1, B. T. Ratov2, B. K.Kurmanov3, V. L. Khomenko4, A. E. Kuttybayev3, E. A. Kazimov5, V. O. Rastsvietaiev4, V. V. Ishkov3
Study of the clinoform structure of Paleogene gas reservoirs in the Ustyurt region
This study examines the methods of analysis and interpretation of geological and geophysical data aimed at identifying and describing clinoform structures and their properties in the Ustyurt region. The work utilizes 3D seismic survey data, geophysical well studies, and the results of seismic facies analysis and PMLI inversion to assess the porosity and gas saturation of the formations. The objective of this work is to study the clinoform structure of Paleogene gas deposits in the Ustyurt region and to identify the geological patterns governing the formation of productive horizons within clinoform structures. This aims to improve prediction accuracy and the efficiency of oil and gas field development. The focus is on analyzing attribute maps such as Signal Envelope, Vp/Vs, and Fluid Factor, which have allowed for the identification of zones with improved reservoir properties and the determination of promising drilling sites. These maps have shown a high degree of correlation with GIS data, enhancing the reliability of forecasts and optimizing field development processes. The study demonstrates that a comprehensive approach, including seismic facies analysis and PMLI inversion, is an effective tool for identifying productive horizons and zones with high reservoir properties. The results obtained provide opportunities for improving the accuracy of geological predictions and increasing the efficiency of gas extraction in the region. Future research is expected to further refine existing models and develop new methods for hydrocarbon exploration and extraction in challenging geological environments.
Keywords: Ustyurt region; Paleogene; clinoform structures; seismic attributes; PMLI inversion.
Date submitted: 24.08.2024 Date accepted: 30.11.2024
This study examines the methods of analysis and interpretation of geological and geophysical data aimed at identifying and describing clinoform structures and their properties in the Ustyurt region. The work utilizes 3D seismic survey data, geophysical well studies, and the results of seismic facies analysis and PMLI inversion to assess the porosity and gas saturation of the formations. The objective of this work is to study the clinoform structure of Paleogene gas deposits in the Ustyurt region and to identify the geological patterns governing the formation of productive horizons within clinoform structures. This aims to improve prediction accuracy and the efficiency of oil and gas field development. The focus is on analyzing attribute maps such as Signal Envelope, Vp/Vs, and Fluid Factor, which have allowed for the identification of zones with improved reservoir properties and the determination of promising drilling sites. These maps have shown a high degree of correlation with GIS data, enhancing the reliability of forecasts and optimizing field development processes. The study demonstrates that a comprehensive approach, including seismic facies analysis and PMLI inversion, is an effective tool for identifying productive horizons and zones with high reservoir properties. The results obtained provide opportunities for improving the accuracy of geological predictions and increasing the efficiency of gas extraction in the region. Future research is expected to further refine existing models and develop new methods for hydrocarbon exploration and extraction in challenging geological environments.
Keywords: Ustyurt region; Paleogene; clinoform structures; seismic attributes; PMLI inversion.
Date submitted: 24.08.2024 Date accepted: 30.11.2024
References
DOI: 10.5510/OGP20240401011
E-mail: inteldriller@gmail.com
A. N. Bogdanov, О. А. Qarshiyev, М. А. Gaffarov, P. V. Khmirov, S. А. Rabbimkulov
Evolution of oil and gas prospecting in the Bukhara-Khiva region
The article briefly presents the history of discovery of hydrocarbon deposits within the Republic of Uzbekistan. Analysis on a continuous basis of the dynamics of discovery of deposits and raw hydrocarbon base is important in determining the directions of geological exploration. Allocation of the most promising regions for oil and gas prospecting allows to rationally place the volume of geological exploration works to achieve maximum efficiency. The research was based on a comprehensive analysis of materials on changes in the hydrocarbon base of the country, the dynamics of field discoveries for the period 1953-2023. Currently, the Bukhara-Khiva region occupies a dominant position in the country not only in terms of the number of fields and reserves, but also in terms of annual and accumulated oil and gas production. One of the main reasons for this is the presence on the territory of the region of 4 fields unique in terms of hydrocarbon reserves. The article notes that the depletion of 4 unique fields in the region is quite high, but these fields today still make a significant contribution to the total production of hydrocarbons. The scientific novelty of this study lies in relevant to date information, updated statistics on the impact of fields with large and unique reserves on the raw material base of the region. The conclusion is made about the determining importance of the size of hydrocarbon reserves of the fields in the structure not only of the region, but also of the republic as a whole.
Keywords: field; deposit; hydrocarbons; oil; gas; reserves.
Date submitted: 24.06.2024 Date accepted: 17.10.2024
The article briefly presents the history of discovery of hydrocarbon deposits within the Republic of Uzbekistan. Analysis on a continuous basis of the dynamics of discovery of deposits and raw hydrocarbon base is important in determining the directions of geological exploration. Allocation of the most promising regions for oil and gas prospecting allows to rationally place the volume of geological exploration works to achieve maximum efficiency. The research was based on a comprehensive analysis of materials on changes in the hydrocarbon base of the country, the dynamics of field discoveries for the period 1953-2023. Currently, the Bukhara-Khiva region occupies a dominant position in the country not only in terms of the number of fields and reserves, but also in terms of annual and accumulated oil and gas production. One of the main reasons for this is the presence on the territory of the region of 4 fields unique in terms of hydrocarbon reserves. The article notes that the depletion of 4 unique fields in the region is quite high, but these fields today still make a significant contribution to the total production of hydrocarbons. The scientific novelty of this study lies in relevant to date information, updated statistics on the impact of fields with large and unique reserves on the raw material base of the region. The conclusion is made about the determining importance of the size of hydrocarbon reserves of the fields in the structure not only of the region, but also of the republic as a whole.
Keywords: field; deposit; hydrocarbons; oil; gas; reserves.
Date submitted: 24.06.2024 Date accepted: 17.10.2024
References
DOI: 10.5510/OGP20240401012
A. I. Nikonov1, K. I. Chernenko2, N. V. Yeriomina2
Currently, the success of prospecting, exploration and development of oil-and-gas deposits in the Neftekumsk carbonate formation remains very low. This is directly related to the fact that the requirements for prospecting geological exploration works do not use lineament analysis methods that take into account the influence of deep geodynamic processes in the formation of structural anisotropy of the reservoirs properties of oil-and-gas bearing local platform structures. From this point of view, the old oil-and-gas bearing regions, including the Fore-Caucasus, remain unexplored, geological models of hydrocarbon deposits require additional reinterpretation from the perspective of the prevailing vertical mechanisms of formation of local structures and migration of hydrocarbon fluids. The article discusses the application of methods of visual structural decoding of satellite images in order to identify tectonic dislocations in the sedimentary cover of the Velichaevsko-Maximokumsky swell. The relevance of this problem lies in the fact that the methods of seismic exploration of the fault zones of the extension type (tension fault), characterized by zones of vertical fluid migration, are not detected. Unlike shear fractures, which are determined by identifying horizontal boundaries of different density layers in the cross-section using seismic exploration methods, extension type faults are detected only by correlation breaks, which are represented by intervals of a blurred wave pattern and changes in the frequency and amplitude compositions of the recording. These listed signs are not unambiguous. In order to take into account all types of fault zones within local platform structures, a system-hierarchical approach to identifying zones of lineaments (compared with multi-directional and multi-scale tectonic dislocations) is proposed.
Keywords: fracturing; structural decoding; lineament; fault zone; local platform structures; geodynamic processes.
Date submitted: 12.08.2024 Date accepted: 16.11.2024
Currently, the success of prospecting, exploration and development of oil-and-gas deposits in the Neftekumsk carbonate formation remains very low. This is directly related to the fact that the requirements for prospecting geological exploration works do not use lineament analysis methods that take into account the influence of deep geodynamic processes in the formation of structural anisotropy of the reservoirs properties of oil-and-gas bearing local platform structures. From this point of view, the old oil-and-gas bearing regions, including the Fore-Caucasus, remain unexplored, geological models of hydrocarbon deposits require additional reinterpretation from the perspective of the prevailing vertical mechanisms of formation of local structures and migration of hydrocarbon fluids. The article discusses the application of methods of visual structural decoding of satellite images in order to identify tectonic dislocations in the sedimentary cover of the Velichaevsko-Maximokumsky swell. The relevance of this problem lies in the fact that the methods of seismic exploration of the fault zones of the extension type (tension fault), characterized by zones of vertical fluid migration, are not detected. Unlike shear fractures, which are determined by identifying horizontal boundaries of different density layers in the cross-section using seismic exploration methods, extension type faults are detected only by correlation breaks, which are represented by intervals of a blurred wave pattern and changes in the frequency and amplitude compositions of the recording. These listed signs are not unambiguous. In order to take into account all types of fault zones within local platform structures, a system-hierarchical approach to identifying zones of lineaments (compared with multi-directional and multi-scale tectonic dislocations) is proposed.
Keywords: fracturing; structural decoding; lineament; fault zone; local platform structures; geodynamic processes.
Date submitted: 12.08.2024 Date accepted: 16.11.2024
References
DOI: 10.5510/OGP20240401013
B. A. Suleimanov1, H. F. Abbasov1, Sh. Z. Ismailov2
Sand production presents numerous technical, economic, and environmental challenges to the oil and gas industry. Sand particles may erode production equipment, resulting in increased maintenance costs and potential equipment breakdown. In addition, the influx of sand into the wellbore can lead to reduced production rates, reduced efficiency of reservoir sweep, and ultimately, reduced recovery of hydrocarbons. Also, sand production impacts project profitability because of the cost of sand control measures and potential lost production. There are two broad classes of methods used to control sand in oil reservoirs: mechanical methods are designed to physically restrict sand particles from entering the wellbore, while chemical methods involve the modification of reservoir properties to increase sand consolidation or fluid mobility. Chemical consolidation uses chemicals (resin, polymer gels, foams, nanoparticles, bacteria, etc.) to bind sand particles together to create a stable formation. For optimal sand control, combined approaches use a combination of mechanical and chemical methods. Sand management is an important part of oil and gas production, and several new technologies such as artificial intelligence and machine learning, autonomous sand monitoring systems, sand control measures, chemical sand control technologies, multilateral sand screens, advanced sand screen materials have been developed to improve sand management in the industry. Current developments and strategies in chemical consolidation techniques, sand management, control and prevention techniques are reviewed in this paper.
Keywords: sand production; chemical consolidation; resin; polymer gels; foams; machine learning; artificial intelligence; sand monitoring systems.
Date submitted: 07.09.2024 Date accepted: 04.12.2024
Sand production presents numerous technical, economic, and environmental challenges to the oil and gas industry. Sand particles may erode production equipment, resulting in increased maintenance costs and potential equipment breakdown. In addition, the influx of sand into the wellbore can lead to reduced production rates, reduced efficiency of reservoir sweep, and ultimately, reduced recovery of hydrocarbons. Also, sand production impacts project profitability because of the cost of sand control measures and potential lost production. There are two broad classes of methods used to control sand in oil reservoirs: mechanical methods are designed to physically restrict sand particles from entering the wellbore, while chemical methods involve the modification of reservoir properties to increase sand consolidation or fluid mobility. Chemical consolidation uses chemicals (resin, polymer gels, foams, nanoparticles, bacteria, etc.) to bind sand particles together to create a stable formation. For optimal sand control, combined approaches use a combination of mechanical and chemical methods. Sand management is an important part of oil and gas production, and several new technologies such as artificial intelligence and machine learning, autonomous sand monitoring systems, sand control measures, chemical sand control technologies, multilateral sand screens, advanced sand screen materials have been developed to improve sand management in the industry. Current developments and strategies in chemical consolidation techniques, sand management, control and prevention techniques are reviewed in this paper.
Keywords: sand production; chemical consolidation; resin; polymer gels; foams; machine learning; artificial intelligence; sand monitoring systems.
Date submitted: 07.09.2024 Date accepted: 04.12.2024
References
DOI: 10.5510/OGP20240401014
E-mail: baghir.suleymanov@socar.az
G. M. Efendiyev1, G. Z. Moldabayeva2, N. S. Buktukov3, M. Y. Kuliyev4
Comprehensive cementing quality assessment and risk management system
Fastening the walls of wells is one of the most important stages that determines the quality of well construction in general, and the quality of fastening depends on several factors, primarily on the quality of the cement mortar. In this regard, the presented article is devoted to the problem of the quality of cementing well walls and assessing the risks of emergency situations due to poor-quality cementing. The article provides a methodology for assessment of the cementation quality of well walls and risk. Based on the results of processing acoustic logging data, cementometry and frequencies and the corresponding consequences in the form of qualitative and quantitative estimates of cementation, «constant risk» curves were constructed to determine the magnitude of the risk. Based on the data obtained, diagrams that made it possible to monitor the dynamics of risks over the past five years at the field under study, taken as an example were constructed. As a result of statistical analysis, the «probability-consequences» relationship (curves of constant risk of poor-quality cementing) was established for the field under consideration at different times, and their analytical approximations were obtained. The marked curves, being boundary ones, divide the coordinate plane into areas of acceptable and unacceptable risk. The area located below the constant risk curve is the area of acceptable risk. The area located above this curve is the area of unacceptable risk. The relationships between the state of contact between the column and the cement stone were established, expressed in the words «high», «good», «low», «unsatisfactory quality».
Keywords: Casing; cement quality; risk; acoustic logging of cement quality (ACL); probability and consequences.
Date submitted: 24.06.2024 Date accepted: 03.09.2024
Fastening the walls of wells is one of the most important stages that determines the quality of well construction in general, and the quality of fastening depends on several factors, primarily on the quality of the cement mortar. In this regard, the presented article is devoted to the problem of the quality of cementing well walls and assessing the risks of emergency situations due to poor-quality cementing. The article provides a methodology for assessment of the cementation quality of well walls and risk. Based on the results of processing acoustic logging data, cementometry and frequencies and the corresponding consequences in the form of qualitative and quantitative estimates of cementation, «constant risk» curves were constructed to determine the magnitude of the risk. Based on the data obtained, diagrams that made it possible to monitor the dynamics of risks over the past five years at the field under study, taken as an example were constructed. As a result of statistical analysis, the «probability-consequences» relationship (curves of constant risk of poor-quality cementing) was established for the field under consideration at different times, and their analytical approximations were obtained. The marked curves, being boundary ones, divide the coordinate plane into areas of acceptable and unacceptable risk. The area located below the constant risk curve is the area of acceptable risk. The area located above this curve is the area of unacceptable risk. The relationships between the state of contact between the column and the cement stone were established, expressed in the words «high», «good», «low», «unsatisfactory quality».
Keywords: Casing; cement quality; risk; acoustic logging of cement quality (ACL); probability and consequences.
Date submitted: 24.06.2024 Date accepted: 03.09.2024
References
DOI: 10.5510/OGP20240401015
R. H. Veliyev
Evaluation of the effect of Bernoulli force on stuck pipe during drilling
Stuck pipe is one of the biggest problems that can occur during drilling. Stuck pipe leads to drilling of sidetrack, and re-drilling of that interval. In order to eliminate the stuck of the instrument, it is necessary to know the cause of its occurrence. It is necessary to eliminate the stuck of the instrument as quickly as possible, as the time for elimination increases, the severity of the stuck increases. Seizure of the tool can occur in two ways: mechanical and differential. During the drilling of oil and gas wells, drilling fluids with different basic and rheological properties are used. Experience shows that drilled rock particles, which are mixed with water-based or oil-based drilling fluids (clay based drilling fluids, polymer based drilling fluids, oil-based drilling fluids) and brought to the surface, have a significant effect on the rheodynamics of the solution, and turn it into a more active multiphase flow. Rock particles of different diameters, which play the role of mechanical particles, play the role of dispersed phase. Based on the interaction of the phases, it is possible for the drilling tool to be stuck because of Bernoulli force which is result of the migration of the rock particles to drilling tool, which is caused by the pressure gradient that changes along the cross-section and is directed towards the center of the cylindrical flow. In the article, the occurrence of stuck is justified and the evaluation of the Bernoulli force, which is the main reason, is considered. As a result of calculation it was determined that Bernoulli force is a function of drilling fluids and drilled rock particles densities, diameter of the drilled rock particles.
Keywords: drilling fluids; Bernoulli forces; static pressure; phiysical model; pressure gradient.
Date submitted: 17.08.2024 Date accepted: 28.10.2024
Stuck pipe is one of the biggest problems that can occur during drilling. Stuck pipe leads to drilling of sidetrack, and re-drilling of that interval. In order to eliminate the stuck of the instrument, it is necessary to know the cause of its occurrence. It is necessary to eliminate the stuck of the instrument as quickly as possible, as the time for elimination increases, the severity of the stuck increases. Seizure of the tool can occur in two ways: mechanical and differential. During the drilling of oil and gas wells, drilling fluids with different basic and rheological properties are used. Experience shows that drilled rock particles, which are mixed with water-based or oil-based drilling fluids (clay based drilling fluids, polymer based drilling fluids, oil-based drilling fluids) and brought to the surface, have a significant effect on the rheodynamics of the solution, and turn it into a more active multiphase flow. Rock particles of different diameters, which play the role of mechanical particles, play the role of dispersed phase. Based on the interaction of the phases, it is possible for the drilling tool to be stuck because of Bernoulli force which is result of the migration of the rock particles to drilling tool, which is caused by the pressure gradient that changes along the cross-section and is directed towards the center of the cylindrical flow. In the article, the occurrence of stuck is justified and the evaluation of the Bernoulli force, which is the main reason, is considered. As a result of calculation it was determined that Bernoulli force is a function of drilling fluids and drilled rock particles densities, diameter of the drilled rock particles.
Keywords: drilling fluids; Bernoulli forces; static pressure; phiysical model; pressure gradient.
Date submitted: 17.08.2024 Date accepted: 28.10.2024
References
DOI: 10.5510/OGP20240401016
Alaa S. Al-Rikaby1,2, Usama S. Alameedy1, Najeh Alali2, Ahmed Alameen1, Raed H. Allawi1,2, Ahmed A. Alamiery2, Hasan Ali Azeez2, Ali Falah Al-Rubaie2, Ahmed A. H. Hussein2
Preliminary investigations of the Mishrif Formation in the Amara oil field reveal that the reservoir is composed of three main stratigraphic units – upper, middle, and lower – each with unique reservoir zones. Located within the Mesopotamian Basin, this area exhibits significant heterogeneity in carbonate formations, creating a challenging environment for reservoir modeling. Due to limited prior research on constructing a model for this formation, an initial investigation into its properties and performance was conducted. A highly accurate three-dimensional reservoir model was developed using well-logging data, core analysis, and production history from three wells. This model simulates reservoir properties and overall performance, aiding in the creation of static and dynamic models of the Mishrif reservoir. Through extensive simulations, which matched the bottom-hole pressure from earlier runs, the model provided insights into reservoir behavior under different operational conditions, supporting optimized depletion strategies. To characterize the reservoir’s petrophysical properties, models were created for three units (MA, T.Z1, and MB11) of the Mishrif Formation, identifying the MA unit as having the highest hydrocarbon content. Consistent with prior oil exploration data, the model estimated the oil initially in place (OIIP) at approximately 149 million cubic meters. Simulation results confirmed that the reservoir is being depleted through solution gas drive, without additional support from gas cap or aquifer drive, validating the study’s conclusions about its production mechanisms and informing future exploitation plans.
Keywords: Mishrif reservoir; Amara oilfield; static model; history matching; OIIP.
Date submitted: 28.09.2024 Date accepted: 09.11.2024
Preliminary investigations of the Mishrif Formation in the Amara oil field reveal that the reservoir is composed of three main stratigraphic units – upper, middle, and lower – each with unique reservoir zones. Located within the Mesopotamian Basin, this area exhibits significant heterogeneity in carbonate formations, creating a challenging environment for reservoir modeling. Due to limited prior research on constructing a model for this formation, an initial investigation into its properties and performance was conducted. A highly accurate three-dimensional reservoir model was developed using well-logging data, core analysis, and production history from three wells. This model simulates reservoir properties and overall performance, aiding in the creation of static and dynamic models of the Mishrif reservoir. Through extensive simulations, which matched the bottom-hole pressure from earlier runs, the model provided insights into reservoir behavior under different operational conditions, supporting optimized depletion strategies. To characterize the reservoir’s petrophysical properties, models were created for three units (MA, T.Z1, and MB11) of the Mishrif Formation, identifying the MA unit as having the highest hydrocarbon content. Consistent with prior oil exploration data, the model estimated the oil initially in place (OIIP) at approximately 149 million cubic meters. Simulation results confirmed that the reservoir is being depleted through solution gas drive, without additional support from gas cap or aquifer drive, validating the study’s conclusions about its production mechanisms and informing future exploitation plans.
Keywords: Mishrif reservoir; Amara oilfield; static model; history matching; OIIP.
Date submitted: 28.09.2024 Date accepted: 09.11.2024
References
DOI: 10.5510/OGP20240401017
E-mail: alaa.awad2108p@coeng.uobaghdad.edu.iq
V. V. Mukhametshin
The work is devoted to assessing the possibilities of using indirect geological and field information in solving applied problems of oil field development using flooding. In the conditions of deposits in carbonate reservoirs of high-viscosity oil of the South Tatar arch, the influence of geological and technological factors on the degree of hydrodynamic interaction of producing and injection wells was studied. The optimal set of parameters is proposed, which determines and characterizes the interaction of wells to the greatest extent, allowing, on the basis of the proposed algorithms, to solve the problems of increasing the efficiency of pumping water into the reservoir under conditions of various kinds of uncertainties, including the absence of direct hydrodynamic studies at various stages of development. The research methodology is based on the calculation of the total diagnostic coefficients for each group of objects, qualitatively characterizing the value and relevance of the data. The results of the simulation made it possible to reliably identify criteria for evaluating the hydrodynamic interaction of wells, which, in conditions of low density of geological and field information, is a source for preliminary determination of the profitability of various technological operations that increase the efficiency of oil reserves extraction. The developed scientific and methodological approach is relevant due to the possibility of its application at the initial stages of drilling sites when it is impossible to promptly update information about the real impact of producing wells on water injection into the reservoir.
Keywords: deposits of carbonate reservoirs; identification of well interactions; flooding of oil reservoirs; geological and statistical modeling; intensity of flooding systems; development of oil fields.
Date submitted: 07.10.2024 Date accepted: 09.12.2024
The work is devoted to assessing the possibilities of using indirect geological and field information in solving applied problems of oil field development using flooding. In the conditions of deposits in carbonate reservoirs of high-viscosity oil of the South Tatar arch, the influence of geological and technological factors on the degree of hydrodynamic interaction of producing and injection wells was studied. The optimal set of parameters is proposed, which determines and characterizes the interaction of wells to the greatest extent, allowing, on the basis of the proposed algorithms, to solve the problems of increasing the efficiency of pumping water into the reservoir under conditions of various kinds of uncertainties, including the absence of direct hydrodynamic studies at various stages of development. The research methodology is based on the calculation of the total diagnostic coefficients for each group of objects, qualitatively characterizing the value and relevance of the data. The results of the simulation made it possible to reliably identify criteria for evaluating the hydrodynamic interaction of wells, which, in conditions of low density of geological and field information, is a source for preliminary determination of the profitability of various technological operations that increase the efficiency of oil reserves extraction. The developed scientific and methodological approach is relevant due to the possibility of its application at the initial stages of drilling sites when it is impossible to promptly update information about the real impact of producing wells on water injection into the reservoir.
Keywords: deposits of carbonate reservoirs; identification of well interactions; flooding of oil reservoirs; geological and statistical modeling; intensity of flooding systems; development of oil fields.
Date submitted: 07.10.2024 Date accepted: 09.12.2024
References
DOI: 10.5510/OGP20240401018
R. A. Gilyazetdinov
The work is devoted to a retrospective assessment of the possibility of using real-time diagnostic curves to solve problems of increasing the efficiency of hydrochloric acid treatments. The object of the study is the carbonate deposits of the Perm Region, characterized by a heterogeneous geological structure in combination with a different content of rock-forming components, their density and intensity of distribution in the context of the main deposits. The methodology of using artificial intelligence algorithms in calculating the fractal dimension of series is presented and the sequence of transition to the given coordinate systems is given to take into account the most important geological and technological indicators affecting the relevance of managerial decision-making. Based on the results of modeling, contradictions were revealed in the basic models for predicting permeability coefficients determined by various methods during field operations. Using the principal component method, hidden patterns were established and the most relevant dependence was selected, which can be successfully used as part of the transition from one coordinate system to another. During the detailed interpretation of the results obtained, it was found that when designing hydrochloric acid exposure, the most important aspect is the calculation of the true value of the Hurst index to characterize the initial data series and probabilistic assessment of the efficiency of cleaning the most permeable filtration channels. Conclusions are drawn about the features of the use of diagnostic curves in the planning of acid treatments and the relevance of their implementation in the real production process of field development and operation at the final stage.
Keywords: integrated well regulation; modeling; principal component method; dynamic reference dependencies; hydrochloric acid effect; cleaning of the bottomhole formation zone.
Date submitted: 30.09.2024 Date accepted: 09.12.2024
The work is devoted to a retrospective assessment of the possibility of using real-time diagnostic curves to solve problems of increasing the efficiency of hydrochloric acid treatments. The object of the study is the carbonate deposits of the Perm Region, characterized by a heterogeneous geological structure in combination with a different content of rock-forming components, their density and intensity of distribution in the context of the main deposits. The methodology of using artificial intelligence algorithms in calculating the fractal dimension of series is presented and the sequence of transition to the given coordinate systems is given to take into account the most important geological and technological indicators affecting the relevance of managerial decision-making. Based on the results of modeling, contradictions were revealed in the basic models for predicting permeability coefficients determined by various methods during field operations. Using the principal component method, hidden patterns were established and the most relevant dependence was selected, which can be successfully used as part of the transition from one coordinate system to another. During the detailed interpretation of the results obtained, it was found that when designing hydrochloric acid exposure, the most important aspect is the calculation of the true value of the Hurst index to characterize the initial data series and probabilistic assessment of the efficiency of cleaning the most permeable filtration channels. Conclusions are drawn about the features of the use of diagnostic curves in the planning of acid treatments and the relevance of their implementation in the real production process of field development and operation at the final stage.
Keywords: integrated well regulation; modeling; principal component method; dynamic reference dependencies; hydrochloric acid effect; cleaning of the bottomhole formation zone.
Date submitted: 30.09.2024 Date accepted: 09.12.2024
References
DOI: 10.5510/OGP20240401019
E-mail: gilyazetdinov_2023@mail.ru
A. A. Gizzatullina
In this paper, a mathematical model of the process of developing a low-permeability reservoir using the technology of paired horizontal channels in the presence of a crack formed during hydraulic fracturing is considered in detail. Hydraulic fracturing is one of the most effective methods of increasing well productivity, in particular, in conditions of complex geological structure of objects. One of the factors of its low effectiveness is an insufficiently high and relevant level of knowledge about the mechanisms of fluid movement in filtration channels formed as a result of injection of liquid under pressure. Assuming that the system of horizontal wells is replaced by one hypothetical well, through which water injection and oil extraction are carried out simultaneously, the problem of the movement of the oil-water boundary between cracks created by hydraulic fracturing in a low-permeability reservoir is considered. A mathematical model is proposed to describe two-phase filtration of liquids (oil and water), and its limits of application for solving real problems of oil field development are indicated. The model is based on the mass balance equations and Darcy's law for each phase, which makes it possible to study the process of injection and selection of reserves in a particular well bore and, consequently, a reservoir section. The results of modeling and analysis of the influence of crack diameters on the distribution of pressure and water saturation are presented. The results obtained make it possible to determine the optimal operating modes of the injection well and predict the water content and flow rate of the producing well using numerical approaches characterized by a low level of errors.
Keywords: hydraulic fracturing; fractures; horizontal wells; low permeability reservoir; filtration; oil.
Date submitted: 07.09.2024 Date accepted: 13.12.2024
In this paper, a mathematical model of the process of developing a low-permeability reservoir using the technology of paired horizontal channels in the presence of a crack formed during hydraulic fracturing is considered in detail. Hydraulic fracturing is one of the most effective methods of increasing well productivity, in particular, in conditions of complex geological structure of objects. One of the factors of its low effectiveness is an insufficiently high and relevant level of knowledge about the mechanisms of fluid movement in filtration channels formed as a result of injection of liquid under pressure. Assuming that the system of horizontal wells is replaced by one hypothetical well, through which water injection and oil extraction are carried out simultaneously, the problem of the movement of the oil-water boundary between cracks created by hydraulic fracturing in a low-permeability reservoir is considered. A mathematical model is proposed to describe two-phase filtration of liquids (oil and water), and its limits of application for solving real problems of oil field development are indicated. The model is based on the mass balance equations and Darcy's law for each phase, which makes it possible to study the process of injection and selection of reserves in a particular well bore and, consequently, a reservoir section. The results of modeling and analysis of the influence of crack diameters on the distribution of pressure and water saturation are presented. The results obtained make it possible to determine the optimal operating modes of the injection well and predict the water content and flow rate of the producing well using numerical approaches characterized by a low level of errors.
Keywords: hydraulic fracturing; fractures; horizontal wells; low permeability reservoir; filtration; oil.
Date submitted: 07.09.2024 Date accepted: 13.12.2024
References
DOI: 10.5510/OGP20240401020
E-mail: alina.gizzatullina87@mail.ru
S. R. Bashirzade1,2, A. A. Lipin3, M. A. Hajiyev2, R. B. Garibov4, O. O. Ozcan1, R. D. Aliyev2
Fire resistance of offshore concrete structures
Offshore platforms are constructed in marine environments and designed with special criteria to ensure structural adequacy against environmental conditions. Unexpected factors during the construction and operational phases can impose an extra load on the platform, which may lead to the deterioration of the structural performance. This study focuses on reviewing how these factors induce further loading, such as the effect of fire on a concrete offshore platform. This study considers a case study approach regarding the effects of fire, which acts in conjunction with all other real-life loads that the platform can face. In the modeling, a heat transfer analysis was carried out using DIANA finite element analysis software. The analysis results indicated that the fire resistance of the structure increased almost linearly with an increase in the wall thickness. The increase in wall thickness allows the structure to be exposed to fire to withstand heat for a longer period, thereby enabling the structural elements to resist the fire more effectively. Moreover, the fire duration has been identified as a key factor in determining the overall performance of a structure. As the fire duration increased, significant increases in both the compressive and tensile stresses were observed in various segments of the structure. These mechanical stresses, induced by high temperatures, play a critical role in maintaining the structural integrity and help explain the differences in performance during a fire. The results obtained are expected to contribute to a better understanding of the effects of fire on offshore design, assessment, and construction.
Keywords: fire; thermal analysis; finite elements; fire modeling; offshore fire; spalling; concrete fire analysis; DIANA FEA.
Date submitted: 04.08.2024 Date accepted: 03.10.2024
Offshore platforms are constructed in marine environments and designed with special criteria to ensure structural adequacy against environmental conditions. Unexpected factors during the construction and operational phases can impose an extra load on the platform, which may lead to the deterioration of the structural performance. This study focuses on reviewing how these factors induce further loading, such as the effect of fire on a concrete offshore platform. This study considers a case study approach regarding the effects of fire, which acts in conjunction with all other real-life loads that the platform can face. In the modeling, a heat transfer analysis was carried out using DIANA finite element analysis software. The analysis results indicated that the fire resistance of the structure increased almost linearly with an increase in the wall thickness. The increase in wall thickness allows the structure to be exposed to fire to withstand heat for a longer period, thereby enabling the structural elements to resist the fire more effectively. Moreover, the fire duration has been identified as a key factor in determining the overall performance of a structure. As the fire duration increased, significant increases in both the compressive and tensile stresses were observed in various segments of the structure. These mechanical stresses, induced by high temperatures, play a critical role in maintaining the structural integrity and help explain the differences in performance during a fire. The results obtained are expected to contribute to a better understanding of the effects of fire on offshore design, assessment, and construction.
Keywords: fire; thermal analysis; finite elements; fire modeling; offshore fire; spalling; concrete fire analysis; DIANA FEA.
Date submitted: 04.08.2024 Date accepted: 03.10.2024
References
DOI: 10.5510/OGP20240401021
E-mail: srbashirzade@gmail.com
A. N. Mukhtarov1, G.E.Akkurt2, N. H. Yildirim3
Simulation of geothermal energy production utilizing abandoned oil and gas wells
Abandoned oil and gas wells (AOGWs) with suitable reservoir temperatures present a promising opportunity to convert subsurface heat into thermal energy or electricity for various applications. This study developed a rigorous thermodynamic model for a single-flash geothermal power plant utilizing a double-pipe direct heat exchanger (DHE), leveraging data from existing literature and modeling via Engineering Equation Solver (EES) software. The model simulates the system using R134a as the working fluid, assessing the influence of rock properties, geothermal gradient, DHE geometry, insulation thickness, mass flow rate of the working fluid, and alternative working fluids on heat extraction efficiency. This innovative approach allows for the efficient utilization of available geothermal heat resources, thereby enhancing the potential for sustainable energy generation. Key findings reveal that the power generation potential from AOGWs employing DHEs is significantly affected by the geothermal gradient within the well, the length of the heat exchanger, and the thermal conductivity of the surrounding rock. Additionally, the model projects the system's long-term performance over a 20-year period, emphasizing the importance of variable fluid characteristics inside the exchanger. Overall, the simulations underscore the necessity of carefully considering these factors to optimize energy extraction from AOGWs. The results highlight the feasibility of harnessing geothermal energy in low-flow-rate conditions, ultimately contributing to the sustainability of energy resources and offering insights for future developments in geothermal energy systems. This approach not only addresses environmental concerns associated with AOGWs but also positions them as viable assets for renewable energy generation.
Keywords: geothermal energy; abandoned hydrocarbon wells; power generation.
Date submitted: 17.09.2024 Date accepted: 04.12.2024
Abandoned oil and gas wells (AOGWs) with suitable reservoir temperatures present a promising opportunity to convert subsurface heat into thermal energy or electricity for various applications. This study developed a rigorous thermodynamic model for a single-flash geothermal power plant utilizing a double-pipe direct heat exchanger (DHE), leveraging data from existing literature and modeling via Engineering Equation Solver (EES) software. The model simulates the system using R134a as the working fluid, assessing the influence of rock properties, geothermal gradient, DHE geometry, insulation thickness, mass flow rate of the working fluid, and alternative working fluids on heat extraction efficiency. This innovative approach allows for the efficient utilization of available geothermal heat resources, thereby enhancing the potential for sustainable energy generation. Key findings reveal that the power generation potential from AOGWs employing DHEs is significantly affected by the geothermal gradient within the well, the length of the heat exchanger, and the thermal conductivity of the surrounding rock. Additionally, the model projects the system's long-term performance over a 20-year period, emphasizing the importance of variable fluid characteristics inside the exchanger. Overall, the simulations underscore the necessity of carefully considering these factors to optimize energy extraction from AOGWs. The results highlight the feasibility of harnessing geothermal energy in low-flow-rate conditions, ultimately contributing to the sustainability of energy resources and offering insights for future developments in geothermal energy systems. This approach not only addresses environmental concerns associated with AOGWs but also positions them as viable assets for renewable energy generation.
Keywords: geothermal energy; abandoned hydrocarbon wells; power generation.
Date submitted: 17.09.2024 Date accepted: 04.12.2024
References
DOI: 10.5510/OGP20240401022
E-mail: mukhtarovabu@gmail.com
S. V. Abbasova1, M. K. Karazhanova2, L. B. Zhetekova2, A. S. Amirov3, Z. B. Imansakipova4
Fields at the final stage of development are characterized by high water cut, large amounts of mechanical impurities, formation of organic and inorganic deposits in the wellbore, as well as intensive equipment corrosion processes. Well operation in such conditions is associated with various difficulties that require extensive research. The solution to this problem depends on a systematic study of the technological efficiency of using downhole equipment, identifying the causes of failures of deep-well pumping equipment and analyzing the properties of impurities. The article is devoted to research aimed at increasing the reliability and efficiency of well operation in difficult conditions through the adoption of technological solutions. The study was carried out using modern methods of data processing and information analysis, namely: the tasks set, based on practical necessity, were solved using physical methods, such as X-ray structural analysis and the method of energy-dispersive microanalysis. As a result, a comparative analysis of the composition and properties of mechanical impurities was carried out using the example of fields in Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. A comprehensive analysis of the composition and size of mechanical impurities confirmed the presence of deposits with various characteristics and particle sizes, which leads to corrosion and mechanical wear of components of deep-well pumping equipment. The completed study allows timely decision-making on increasing the reliability of operation of process equipment by selecting the most effective method of protection against mechanical impurities, as a result of which it becomes possible to increase the period between repairs of pumping equipment.
Keywords: operation; difficult conditions; deep-well pumping equipment; impurities; corrosive wear; diffraction pattern; spectrogram; mineralogical composition.
Date submitted: 27.05.2024 Date accepted: 06.09.2024
Fields at the final stage of development are characterized by high water cut, large amounts of mechanical impurities, formation of organic and inorganic deposits in the wellbore, as well as intensive equipment corrosion processes. Well operation in such conditions is associated with various difficulties that require extensive research. The solution to this problem depends on a systematic study of the technological efficiency of using downhole equipment, identifying the causes of failures of deep-well pumping equipment and analyzing the properties of impurities. The article is devoted to research aimed at increasing the reliability and efficiency of well operation in difficult conditions through the adoption of technological solutions. The study was carried out using modern methods of data processing and information analysis, namely: the tasks set, based on practical necessity, were solved using physical methods, such as X-ray structural analysis and the method of energy-dispersive microanalysis. As a result, a comparative analysis of the composition and properties of mechanical impurities was carried out using the example of fields in Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. A comprehensive analysis of the composition and size of mechanical impurities confirmed the presence of deposits with various characteristics and particle sizes, which leads to corrosion and mechanical wear of components of deep-well pumping equipment. The completed study allows timely decision-making on increasing the reliability of operation of process equipment by selecting the most effective method of protection against mechanical impurities, as a result of which it becomes possible to increase the period between repairs of pumping equipment.
Keywords: operation; difficult conditions; deep-well pumping equipment; impurities; corrosive wear; diffraction pattern; spectrogram; mineralogical composition.
Date submitted: 27.05.2024 Date accepted: 06.09.2024
References
DOI: 10.5510/OGP20240401023
E-mail: abbasovasamira@mail.ru
E. I. Gorelkina
This article presents a method for calculating the operating parameters of a liquid-gas ejector using the average integral performance, which simplifies the selection of an ejector when configuring a pump-ejector system. Previous studies have shown that it is possible to generalize the performances of the ejector using dimensionless parameters – relative pressure drop and average integral injection coefficient. However, the method itself with an explanation was not developed and published. To fill this gap, a method for calculating the operating dimensional parameters of the ejector (gas flow rate and developed pressure) using the average integral performance was created and tested. The developed method makes it possible to calculate, with sufficient accuracy for practical purposes, the pumped gas flow rate and outlet pressure in different modes in the range of absolute pressures at the entrance to the ejector receiving chamber from 3 to 10 bar and operating pressures in front of the nozzle from 61 to 121 bar. The technique is applicable not only in bench conditions, but also in field conditions. A comparison of the calculated and actual values of gas consumption showed that the maximum relative deviation of the calculated values from the actual ones does not exceed 5%. The scientific novelty consists in the development of a graphical-analytical method for calculating the operating parameters of a liquid-gas ejector based on the average integral characteristic, which ensures good convergence of calculated and actual data. This will allow increasing oil recovery by introducing the SWAG-technology and reducing annular pressures.
Keywords: waterflooding; simultaneous water and gas injection (SWAG-technology); associated petroleum gas; pump-ejector systems; liquid-gas ejectors (or jet devices); average integral injection coefficient.
Date submitted: 25.12.2023 Date accepted: 26.11.2024
This article presents a method for calculating the operating parameters of a liquid-gas ejector using the average integral performance, which simplifies the selection of an ejector when configuring a pump-ejector system. Previous studies have shown that it is possible to generalize the performances of the ejector using dimensionless parameters – relative pressure drop and average integral injection coefficient. However, the method itself with an explanation was not developed and published. To fill this gap, a method for calculating the operating dimensional parameters of the ejector (gas flow rate and developed pressure) using the average integral performance was created and tested. The developed method makes it possible to calculate, with sufficient accuracy for practical purposes, the pumped gas flow rate and outlet pressure in different modes in the range of absolute pressures at the entrance to the ejector receiving chamber from 3 to 10 bar and operating pressures in front of the nozzle from 61 to 121 bar. The technique is applicable not only in bench conditions, but also in field conditions. A comparison of the calculated and actual values of gas consumption showed that the maximum relative deviation of the calculated values from the actual ones does not exceed 5%. The scientific novelty consists in the development of a graphical-analytical method for calculating the operating parameters of a liquid-gas ejector based on the average integral characteristic, which ensures good convergence of calculated and actual data. This will allow increasing oil recovery by introducing the SWAG-technology and reducing annular pressures.
Keywords: waterflooding; simultaneous water and gas injection (SWAG-technology); associated petroleum gas; pump-ejector systems; liquid-gas ejectors (or jet devices); average integral injection coefficient.
Date submitted: 25.12.2023 Date accepted: 26.11.2024
References
DOI: 10.5510/OGP20240401024
E-mail: Gorelckina.evgenia@yandex.ru
V. Sh. Mukhametshin
The article presents the results of geological and statistical modeling of the process of hydrochloric acid exposure using the method of canonical correlations - the main tool for information processing, which is based on the theory of the presence of linear combinations between the variables under consideration. Hydrochloric acid treatment is one of the most commonly used methods to increase productivity, in particular in wells that have exposed deposits of carbonate reservoirs. Despite the fact that the mechanisms of interaction between the injected composition and rocks have been studied in sufficient detail, the average effectiveness of measures remains at a low level, due to the influence of geological heterogeneity. Based on the modeling data, it is proposed to use a combination of various efficiency parameters when selecting impact objects in order to reduce uncertainty in making management decisions, determining the technological parameters of measures to intensify oil production, taking into account the peculiarities of the geological structure of objects, geological and physical properties of formations, technological parameters of wells and deposits. As part of the study, the obtained models allow for flexible response when making decisions to changes in the market situation, which has a positive effect on the technical and economic performance of enterprises in the energy sector and can significantly increase the effectiveness of the impact, reasonably select candidate wells. The interpretation of various dependencies made it possible to qualitatively identify hidden patterns between groups of objects of the Devonian and Carboniferous ages of the Ural-Volga region.
Keywords: bottom-hole formation zone; development of oil fields; hydrochloric acid exposure; selection of candidate wells; geological and technological parameters; impact efficiency.
Date submitted: 07.09.2023 Date accepted: 13.12.2024
The article presents the results of geological and statistical modeling of the process of hydrochloric acid exposure using the method of canonical correlations - the main tool for information processing, which is based on the theory of the presence of linear combinations between the variables under consideration. Hydrochloric acid treatment is one of the most commonly used methods to increase productivity, in particular in wells that have exposed deposits of carbonate reservoirs. Despite the fact that the mechanisms of interaction between the injected composition and rocks have been studied in sufficient detail, the average effectiveness of measures remains at a low level, due to the influence of geological heterogeneity. Based on the modeling data, it is proposed to use a combination of various efficiency parameters when selecting impact objects in order to reduce uncertainty in making management decisions, determining the technological parameters of measures to intensify oil production, taking into account the peculiarities of the geological structure of objects, geological and physical properties of formations, technological parameters of wells and deposits. As part of the study, the obtained models allow for flexible response when making decisions to changes in the market situation, which has a positive effect on the technical and economic performance of enterprises in the energy sector and can significantly increase the effectiveness of the impact, reasonably select candidate wells. The interpretation of various dependencies made it possible to qualitatively identify hidden patterns between groups of objects of the Devonian and Carboniferous ages of the Ural-Volga region.
Keywords: bottom-hole formation zone; development of oil fields; hydrochloric acid exposure; selection of candidate wells; geological and technological parameters; impact efficiency.
Date submitted: 07.09.2023 Date accepted: 13.12.2024
References
DOI: 10.5510/OGP20240401025
E. Kh. Iskandarov
Study of structural changes in multifaceted gas pipelines
The study and generalization of the collection and transportation of multifaceted hydrocarbon mixtures produced in operating fields, as well as the acceptance of energy-efficient and resource-saving operational solutions, and the development of new approaches and methods for improving technological processes, are key conditions for the successful resolution of the posed issues. Complications occurring during the collection and transportation of hydrocarbon mixtures are often related to their multifaceted nature. In the preparation for transportation, if natural or associated gases are not dried to the required levels, it results in harmful phase transitions in the multifaceted mixtures within the transportation system. This, leads to the formation of harmful pulsations and causes the equipment and elements in the collection-transportation system to operate in a vibration mode. In practice, it is sometimes possible to encounter the transportation of gases with different quality indicators through a single pipeline. In such cases, natural gases may mix with each other or with associated gas. Studying the technological condition of the gas pipeline, examining quality changes in gas mixtures, diagnosing difficulties arising in the operation of the pipeline, and timely forecasting potential accident scenarios are significant issues. The paper investigates the variations in individual components of gas mixtures, mechanical impurities, gas humidity, and other indicators that do not conform to their initial values. The research demonstrates the possibility of diagnosing structural changes occurring during the transportation of natural and associated gases, as well as their mixtures, based on the component composition of the gas and certain physical-chemical indicators.
Keywords: natural gas; associated gas; gas mixture; gas component composition; density; dew point; phase transitions; structural changes; classification function; expert evaluation.
Date submitted: 11.09.2024 Date accepted: 01.12.2024
The study and generalization of the collection and transportation of multifaceted hydrocarbon mixtures produced in operating fields, as well as the acceptance of energy-efficient and resource-saving operational solutions, and the development of new approaches and methods for improving technological processes, are key conditions for the successful resolution of the posed issues. Complications occurring during the collection and transportation of hydrocarbon mixtures are often related to their multifaceted nature. In the preparation for transportation, if natural or associated gases are not dried to the required levels, it results in harmful phase transitions in the multifaceted mixtures within the transportation system. This, leads to the formation of harmful pulsations and causes the equipment and elements in the collection-transportation system to operate in a vibration mode. In practice, it is sometimes possible to encounter the transportation of gases with different quality indicators through a single pipeline. In such cases, natural gases may mix with each other or with associated gas. Studying the technological condition of the gas pipeline, examining quality changes in gas mixtures, diagnosing difficulties arising in the operation of the pipeline, and timely forecasting potential accident scenarios are significant issues. The paper investigates the variations in individual components of gas mixtures, mechanical impurities, gas humidity, and other indicators that do not conform to their initial values. The research demonstrates the possibility of diagnosing structural changes occurring during the transportation of natural and associated gases, as well as their mixtures, based on the component composition of the gas and certain physical-chemical indicators.
Keywords: natural gas; associated gas; gas mixture; gas component composition; density; dew point; phase transitions; structural changes; classification function; expert evaluation.
Date submitted: 11.09.2024 Date accepted: 01.12.2024
References
DOI: 10.5510/OGP20240401026
E-mail: e.iskenderov62@mail.ru
S. H. Qurbanov1, E. I. Dzyuba2, А. I. Borodin3,4, Z. F. Mamedov1,5
Assessment of the return on equity of pjsc «Rosneft» using artificial intelligence
This study (unlike most of the famous works) is devoted to clarifying only the capitalization factors of oil companies of a non-speculative nature. Such factors are directly related to the main key production and financial performance indicators of companies. Today, PJSC NK Rosneft is the largest Russian oil company in terms of proven hydrocarbon reserves, occupying a leading position in the world. However, in the analyzed period, the company experienced a high degree of variability in the return on equity (6.9% in 2020 and 24.2/23.6% in 2021/2023). Therefore, at the current stage of development, monitoring the return on equity based on high-precision methods of economic and statistical modeling is relevant for PJSC NK Rosneft. Within the framework of this study, a hypothesis is put forward about the possibility of an adequate approximation and forecasting of the return on equity of a company using the Dupont model using artificial intelligence. Empirically, according to the data of the RAS of PJSC Rosneft for 2011-2023, this hypothesis is confirmed. The formed Bayesian ensemble of 7 neuromodels of various configurations allows not only to deepen the factor analysis of the company's return on equity, but also to predict its value with a high degree of accuracy (the maximum approximation error of any multilayer perceptron does not exceed 0.6%). The results obtained can be taken into account by the management of PJSC Rosneft in the process of planning the profitability of its own funds.
Keywords: capitalization; oil companies; profitability; equity; Dupont model; artificial intelligence; Baeis ensemble; neuromodels; multilayer perceptron; forecasting.
Date submitted: 24.09.2024 Date accepted: 15.12.2024
This study (unlike most of the famous works) is devoted to clarifying only the capitalization factors of oil companies of a non-speculative nature. Such factors are directly related to the main key production and financial performance indicators of companies. Today, PJSC NK Rosneft is the largest Russian oil company in terms of proven hydrocarbon reserves, occupying a leading position in the world. However, in the analyzed period, the company experienced a high degree of variability in the return on equity (6.9% in 2020 and 24.2/23.6% in 2021/2023). Therefore, at the current stage of development, monitoring the return on equity based on high-precision methods of economic and statistical modeling is relevant for PJSC NK Rosneft. Within the framework of this study, a hypothesis is put forward about the possibility of an adequate approximation and forecasting of the return on equity of a company using the Dupont model using artificial intelligence. Empirically, according to the data of the RAS of PJSC Rosneft for 2011-2023, this hypothesis is confirmed. The formed Bayesian ensemble of 7 neuromodels of various configurations allows not only to deepen the factor analysis of the company's return on equity, but also to predict its value with a high degree of accuracy (the maximum approximation error of any multilayer perceptron does not exceed 0.6%). The results obtained can be taken into account by the management of PJSC Rosneft in the process of planning the profitability of its own funds.
Keywords: capitalization; oil companies; profitability; equity; Dupont model; artificial intelligence; Baeis ensemble; neuromodels; multilayer perceptron; forecasting.
Date submitted: 24.09.2024 Date accepted: 15.12.2024
References
DOI: 10.5510/OGP20240401028
M. A. Mammadov1, T. A. Yadigarov1, F. A. Mammadova1, Sh. I. Alizade1, O. A. Nagdiyev1, G. N. Safarova2, A. M. Aliyev1
In this article, the creation of an economic-mathematical model of the risk assessment of the enterprise's innovative activity in the oil and gas industry was considered. Total capital investment in the oil and gas industry in 2005-2022, investments focused on fixed capital, dependencies between the value of industrial products and added value were evaluated using the EViews-12 standard software package. It has been determined that the increase in innovation costs leads to an increase in the added value of the oil and gas industry. By using linear programming problems and creating an economic-mathematical model of risk assessment of the enterprise's innovative activity, the essence of rewarding risks in the formation of the optimal innovation plan was analyzed. As a result of the conducted studies, it was found that, considering the risk factor, the actual returns of investments in innovation projects within the oil and gas industry should exceed the standard returns. Also, the optimal investment limit for the purchase of machinery and equipment for innovative activity, the installation of purchased fixed assets (funds) and the construction of fixed assets (funds) based on innovative technologies, using real results and according to the model proposed for «Oil and Gas Construction» of SOCAR the enterprise is defined. The application of the proposed economic-mathematical modeling for the assessment of the risks of the enterprise's innovative activity in the oil and gas industry allows for a comprehensive analysis of the risks identified during the period under review.
Keywords: innovation; investments; risk; capital investments; assessment; correlation; regression; elasticity coefficient; linear programming; economic- mathematical model.
Date submitted: 05.07.2024 Date accepted: 09.12.2024
In this article, the creation of an economic-mathematical model of the risk assessment of the enterprise's innovative activity in the oil and gas industry was considered. Total capital investment in the oil and gas industry in 2005-2022, investments focused on fixed capital, dependencies between the value of industrial products and added value were evaluated using the EViews-12 standard software package. It has been determined that the increase in innovation costs leads to an increase in the added value of the oil and gas industry. By using linear programming problems and creating an economic-mathematical model of risk assessment of the enterprise's innovative activity, the essence of rewarding risks in the formation of the optimal innovation plan was analyzed. As a result of the conducted studies, it was found that, considering the risk factor, the actual returns of investments in innovation projects within the oil and gas industry should exceed the standard returns. Also, the optimal investment limit for the purchase of machinery and equipment for innovative activity, the installation of purchased fixed assets (funds) and the construction of fixed assets (funds) based on innovative technologies, using real results and according to the model proposed for «Oil and Gas Construction» of SOCAR the enterprise is defined. The application of the proposed economic-mathematical modeling for the assessment of the risks of the enterprise's innovative activity in the oil and gas industry allows for a comprehensive analysis of the risks identified during the period under review.
Keywords: innovation; investments; risk; capital investments; assessment; correlation; regression; elasticity coefficient; linear programming; economic- mathematical model.
Date submitted: 05.07.2024 Date accepted: 09.12.2024
References
DOI: 10.5510/OGP20240401029
E-mail: tabrizyadigarov65@gmail.com
E. A. Alkhasli1, S. M. Asgarzada2, A. R. Dashqinli1, I. A. Khudiyeva2, S. H. Eldarova2, R. R. Aliyev1
Expansion prospects of feedstock base in petrochemical industry
Economic and geopolitical trends in global oil markets are unfolding alongside significant structural changes in the fuel and energy industry (FEI). These developments are driving a transition to alternative vehicle fuels due to worsening environmental conditions and promoting the refining of crude oil into petrochemical products. This transformation is critical for meeting domestic demand and complying with increasingly stringent environmental and economic standards in foreign markets. A key objective for the crude refining complex (REF) is now to supply feedstock to the petrochemical sector (PETR). Steam crackers, the cornerstone of the global petrochemical industry, use different feedstocks depending on the region: naphtha in Europe and Asia, gas in North America and the Middle East, and coal in China. (However, in China, the reliance on coal is outdated. Currently, the primary energy source is Nahphtha based). In our country, the steam cracker is designed to process both liquid (naphtha) and gaseous (ethane) feedstock. However, limited crude throughput has created supply challenges for straight-run naphtha, a vital input for fuel production (catalytic reforming) and petrochemical production (steam cracking). Since oil refineries are the primary source of petrochemical feedstock, this article evaluates how intensifying crude refining processes could expand feedstock availability. Seven refining configurations were developed, incorporating new processes (hydrocracking, deasphalting) and modifications to existing processes (catalytic cracking). The analysis shows that deep catalytic cracking and deasphalting could boost feedstock supply to steam crackers by 8-10 %. Case 3 was identified as the most suitable configuration for the short term through comprehensive technical and economic calculations, ensuring optimal efficiency and cost-effectiveness.
Keywords: crude refining; petrochemicals; liquified gases; deep catalytic cracking; deasphalting; hydrocracking.
Date submitted: 03.05.2024 Date accepted: 30.10.2024
Economic and geopolitical trends in global oil markets are unfolding alongside significant structural changes in the fuel and energy industry (FEI). These developments are driving a transition to alternative vehicle fuels due to worsening environmental conditions and promoting the refining of crude oil into petrochemical products. This transformation is critical for meeting domestic demand and complying with increasingly stringent environmental and economic standards in foreign markets. A key objective for the crude refining complex (REF) is now to supply feedstock to the petrochemical sector (PETR). Steam crackers, the cornerstone of the global petrochemical industry, use different feedstocks depending on the region: naphtha in Europe and Asia, gas in North America and the Middle East, and coal in China. (However, in China, the reliance on coal is outdated. Currently, the primary energy source is Nahphtha based). In our country, the steam cracker is designed to process both liquid (naphtha) and gaseous (ethane) feedstock. However, limited crude throughput has created supply challenges for straight-run naphtha, a vital input for fuel production (catalytic reforming) and petrochemical production (steam cracking). Since oil refineries are the primary source of petrochemical feedstock, this article evaluates how intensifying crude refining processes could expand feedstock availability. Seven refining configurations were developed, incorporating new processes (hydrocracking, deasphalting) and modifications to existing processes (catalytic cracking). The analysis shows that deep catalytic cracking and deasphalting could boost feedstock supply to steam crackers by 8-10 %. Case 3 was identified as the most suitable configuration for the short term through comprehensive technical and economic calculations, ensuring optimal efficiency and cost-effectiveness.
Keywords: crude refining; petrochemicals; liquified gases; deep catalytic cracking; deasphalting; hydrocracking.
Date submitted: 03.05.2024 Date accepted: 30.10.2024
References
DOI: 10.5510/OGP20240401027
E-mail: emil.alkhasli@socardownstream.az
M. G. Bashirov*, A. S. Khismatullin, D. Sh. Akchurin
Intelligent system for monitoring air pollution by oil refining and petrochemical enterprises
Oil refining and petrochemical enterprises are usually located in close proximity to urban settlements - single-industry towns created to support their operation. Emissions from these enterprises play a major role in shaping the environmental situation in the surrounding areas. Currently used automatic stations of urban air pollution control only register exceedances of maximum permissible concentrations of the main pollutants, while to reduce the impact of air pollution on the health of the population the problem of air quality management becomes relevant. In the course of the research the methods of statistical data processing and analysis, neural network modeling and machine learning were used. Modern oil refining and petrochemical enterprises together with single-industry towns often form industrial conglomerations. Environmental problems of single-industry towns can be solved only by taking into account the contribution of all polluting enterprises of the conglomeration, their geographical features and meteorological conditions. Taking into account the amount of information that must be promptly processed to analyze the environmental situation and make managerial decisions, the need to use modern technologies based on artificial intelligence becomes obvious. For identification of enterprises-sources of pollution, integral assessment of atmospheric pollution and formation of management decisions and recommendations to enterprises on optimization of operation modes taking into account meteorological conditions, an intelligent system of atmospheric air quality monitoring has been developed. Air pollution is assessed using the integral index of atmospheric pollution (IIAP), which takes into account the number of analyzed harmful substances, their concentrations, hazard class and average daily maximum permissible concentration.
Keywords: atmospheric air pollution; integral assessment; industrial emissions into the atmosphere; artificial neural network; intelligent environmental monitoring system.
Date submitted: 07.02.2024 Date accepted: 05.11.2024
Oil refining and petrochemical enterprises are usually located in close proximity to urban settlements - single-industry towns created to support their operation. Emissions from these enterprises play a major role in shaping the environmental situation in the surrounding areas. Currently used automatic stations of urban air pollution control only register exceedances of maximum permissible concentrations of the main pollutants, while to reduce the impact of air pollution on the health of the population the problem of air quality management becomes relevant. In the course of the research the methods of statistical data processing and analysis, neural network modeling and machine learning were used. Modern oil refining and petrochemical enterprises together with single-industry towns often form industrial conglomerations. Environmental problems of single-industry towns can be solved only by taking into account the contribution of all polluting enterprises of the conglomeration, their geographical features and meteorological conditions. Taking into account the amount of information that must be promptly processed to analyze the environmental situation and make managerial decisions, the need to use modern technologies based on artificial intelligence becomes obvious. For identification of enterprises-sources of pollution, integral assessment of atmospheric pollution and formation of management decisions and recommendations to enterprises on optimization of operation modes taking into account meteorological conditions, an intelligent system of atmospheric air quality monitoring has been developed. Air pollution is assessed using the integral index of atmospheric pollution (IIAP), which takes into account the number of analyzed harmful substances, their concentrations, hazard class and average daily maximum permissible concentration.
Keywords: atmospheric air pollution; integral assessment; industrial emissions into the atmosphere; artificial neural network; intelligent environmental monitoring system.
Date submitted: 07.02.2024 Date accepted: 05.11.2024
References
DOI: 10.5510/OGP20240401030